It can be difficult to confirm that nuclear weapons are being dismanted. There are limits to what a nuclear-armed state will reveal, and there are limits to what a non-nuclear-armed state can learn about nuclear weapons.
Is it still possible for a non-nuclear-armed state, like Norway, to confirm that disarmament is actually happening? This was the topic of an exercise recently conducted at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico, USA. Norway, Sweden, the US, and the UK participated in this exercise.
“A new and important element in this exercise was how continuous monitoring of nuclear facilities can be used to ensure that nuclear weapons are not being produced or maintained in secret. Previously, disarmament verification exercises have focused particularly on conducting individual inspections,” says Senior Advisor Styrkaar Hustveit at the Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (DSA).
Representatives from Norway included participants from the DSA, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), and NORSAR. Approximately 40 participants from the four countries took part in the exercise. The facility at Sandia National Laboratories, which is no longer in daily use, was used to simulate a facility for the production and dismantling of nuclear weapons.
The exercise was the result of several years of planning within the disarmament collaboration known as the Quad Nuclear Verification Partnership. Norway and Sweden participate as non-nuclear-armed states, while the US and the UK participate as nuclear-armed states. The partnership was established in 2015 with the aim of developing methods to verify that nuclear disarmament is actually taking place. The partnership is unique due to the close cooperation between two non-nuclear-armed states and two nuclear-armed states.
Verification of commitments through monitoring is expected to play a central role in future disarmament agreements. This will be an important measure to build trust and ensure transparency between the parties.
The challenges of verifying nuclear disarmament are largely related to national security issues and the safety requirements for dismantling and handling such materials. It also involves the need to ensure that knowledge about how to make nuclear weapons is not shared, in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.